CEO Corner
History
This column is updated quarterly with a bit of the tale, a portion of humor and a ton of “gut feeling.” As I have aged I ramble more, so just hang on and try to find the recipe to gaining anything from this little column. The few stocks mentioned are currently owned with no plan to sell on the table at the writing of this article. When this column and a lot of Irish luck helps you succeed please share your new found wealth and consider a gift to the Simon Youth Foundation, Susan G. Komen Race for the Cure, The Salvation Army, local food banks or other non-profits that help people get a second chance overcoming life’s obstacles. When you give your time and money good luck will keep giving back to you.
Quarterly Commentary by Travis McWhorter, CEO
(Updated January 2010)
2009 Fourth Quarter Update and First Quarter 2010 FORECAST
Persidea Trends
Persidea newest venture www.ClickitEclip.com is marching across Texas with the goal of around the world. By the end of the first quarter we will add to the Central Texas/Austin area deals, coupons for stores in Waco, Temple, Killeen, Salado, Wichita Falls and others. We think you should get used to checking the site every day to find what new things you can buy for less. You will in the future be able to save money on almost everything you buy at a ClickitEclip advertiser. Should you be involved with a business that ever spends any money on coupons or advertising, you should stop what you are doing now and move into the future with us. You will grow faster and save money doing it.
Persidea technology, printing and advertising teams continue to bring on new clients for advertising services, graphic design, publication and commercial printing, websites and marketing and branding. We have clients in 47 states and 7 countries. Give us a chance with everything you do. You will love our prices and ideas.
Travis' Gut Feelings
We people of the world are a little nervous about things. The governments really would like to help, but the fact is most of them know very little about the life of small to mid-size business or even normal individuals as far as that goes. We do not need anyone to wipe our nose. We just need them to get out of our face and provide a little wind at our backs. Get us some good roads, some security, great schools, a chance to better ourselves and when we need to one of us will jump across a few seats to take out the enemy or help out a fellow person. My dream is that governments worldwide will be elected from a cross section of the people and stay only a term or two and go back home often to re-understand real life and also move about cultures to appreciate each other. Fear creates nervousness. Understanding creates trust.
Stocks: I hope you are still riding with Ford. A few months back it was about a dollar, the second quarter it started at $2.63 and ended at $6.07. The third quarter it closed at $7.21. It ended the year at $10.00 Ten-fold up and we remain bold. Buy some stock and buy a Ford product. We are along for the ride for the 5th quarter in a row. This is another record time frame for the CEO Corner. The symbol is (F). We are sticking with DELL at $14.36, and adding Invanhoe (IVAN) at $2.86. You will discover that our index later predicts a down 1st quarter, but these stocks are for the long haul and some stocks will win big the coming quarter.
FOUND MONEY Market Indicator
The History of the Index: The name McWhorter is Scotch-Irish. The Irish side likes to have fun, but the Scotch side cannot walk past a coin on the street, even if it is a penny at a busy intersection. If you see him walking with his head down, he is not depressed nor had too much Scotch. He is looking for money. When Travis returned to Texas a few years ago, after an absence of 7 years living in Indianapolis, he found a dollar on the streets of Austin his very first day back. His wife, Jo Ann, had the idea of keeping the money in a jar marked "found money" since moving to Austin to see how much was found in a year. In tracking the money Travis has discovered that there is a correlation between money found in a calendar quarter and the economy. The more money found the better the market and economy the following quarter. He has developed an indicator, which we will report in this column quarterly. In 2008 he added the annual predictor, which we report in December each year. The 11th year ended in June and is added below.
TRAVIS' FOUND MONEY INDEX (INCEPTION JUNE 9, 1998, Austin, Texas)
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| 1st Year | $6.49 | STOCK MARKET NEUTRAL |
| (Based on secret findings) |
| 2nd Year | $8.68 |
| 3rd Year | $7.65 |
| 4th Year | $9.81 |
| 5th Year | $7.54 |
| 6th Year | $6.24 |
| 7th Year | $6.43 |
| 8th Year | $12.73 |
| 9th Year | $4.59 |
| 10th Year | $11.90 |
| 11th Year | $8.75 |
| Actual annual findings each year are listed above and have been audited by the use of a full finger and toe verification system. The annual predictor, once modified, has just completed its second year. The first year correctly predicted the really bad 2008 fall but I missed it. This second year of 2009 has just completed and the market grew greater than 10%, about 20%, so the annual prediction of greater than 10% was right on. |
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The Index is predicting greater than 10% again for 2010.
The Proven Accuracy of the Index in Quarterly Predictions is Confirmed Below.
DIRECTION OF STOCK MARKET BY QUARTER: 24 RIGHT 12 WRONG-THE INDEX is CORRECT OVER 66% OF THE TIME AND HAS PREDICTED UP TO 5 STRAIGHT QUARTERS CORRECTLY. It has called the last 3 perfectly.
| Forecast: Travis' Found Money Index points down for the 1st Quarter 2010. |
The Found Money findings of $.70 this quarter points to the First Quarter going down greater than 5%. So though the first quarter looks to be down, the year is forecast up.
Predicting Quarter (Quarter Proceeding) | Amount Found During 3 months | Forecast Period (Overall Stock U.S.) | Prediction (Direction) | Actual |
| 4th Quarter, 2007 | $3.38 | 1st Quarter, 2008 | Up >5% | Down >5% |
| 1st Quarter, 2008 | .91 | 2nd Quarter, 2008 | Down >5% | Down <5% |
| 2nd Quarter, 2008 | $ 1.08 | 3rd Quarter, 2008 | Down <5% | Down >5% |
| 3rd Quarter, 2008 | $1.69 | 4th Quarter, 2008 | Up >5% | Down >5% |
| 4th Quarter, 2008 | $3.64 | 1st Quarter, 2009 | Up >5% | Down >5% |
| 1st Quarter, 2009 | $1.40 | 2nd Quarter, 2009 | Up <5% | Up >5% |
| 2nd Quarter, 2009 | $1.79 | 3rd Quarter, 2009 | Up >5% | Up >5% |
| 3rd Quarter, 2009 | $4.11 | 4th Quarter, 2009 | Up >5% | Up >5% |
| 4th Quarter, 2009 | $4.11 | 1st Quarter, 2010 | Down >5% | Check in April |
(See the Entire Quarterly History of the Findings and Forecasts)
| Predicting Year | Amount Found | Forecast Period | Prediction | Actual |
| 9th Year Finding | $4.59 | Year 2008 | Down >30% | Down >35 |
| 10th Year Finding | $11.90 | Year 2009 | Up >10% | Up >10% |
| 11th Year Finding | $8.75 | Year 2010 | Up >10% | Check next Jan. 1 |
(The actual results are based on a straight average of the % changes of the NASDAQ and Dow). A secret formula has discovered how to call a quarter in advance. Another secret based on the theoretical number of ingredients in the original Dr. Pepper and Coke formulas plus a magic number and the historical year’s finding modified determines the annual forecast.
2009 Fourth Quarter Findings Point Down For First Quarter 2010.
Wow! Another nice quarter and the index got it right. Now it looks like a breather is coming in the first quarter of 2010 but the year looks great. Now let’s get some people to work in the early part of the year and ride the beginning of a new decade with an optimistic brainwave running though our collective minds.
Thanks for being in my corner. Check back in April when we next update the quarter. Believe me when I say that when the index points down I always root against it.