CEO Corner

History
This column is ‘tweeted” quarterly with a smidgeon of fact, a bit of a tale, a portion of humor and a ton of “gut feeling.” The few stocks mentioned are currently owned with no plan to sell on the table at the writing of this article. When this column and a lot of Scotch-Irish luck helps you succeed please share your new found wealth and consider a gift to the Simon Youth Foundation, Susan G. Komen for the Cure, The Salvation Army, your local food banks or other non-profits that help people get a second chance overcoming life’s obstacles. Giving will always feel good and boomerang back to you.

Quarterly Commentary by Travis McWhorter, CEO
(Updated July 2010)

2010 Second Quarter Update and Third Quarter FORECAST

Persidea Trends
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Persidea technology, printing and advertising teams continue to bring on new clients for advertising services, graphic design, publication and commercial printing, websites and marketing and branding. Persidea is one of the top advertising and website developing agency in their markets.

Travis' Gut Feelings
The world and the U.S. economies are under a great threat. The best we can do is deal with our own thoughts. It is time to suck it up and push for what you believe in. Do not let others push you into a corner or under a rock. One person at a time we can move us toward great again. We are great individually and together we are even greater. Do not go or vote against your gut feelings. When you feel something is right or wrong it usually is.

Stocks: As regular readers you know that last quarter Ford was not listed for the first time in many quarters. It fell back this quarter along with most stocks as the economy still feels shaky. So now is time to support the company as American as Peach Cobbler and invest. The stocks to focus on this quarter are: Ford (F) $10.08, Pier 1 Imports (PIR) $6.41, and EMC Corp. $18.30. These prices were the closing prices at the end of the 2nd quarter and are our picks for the future. Buy for the long run, but take a profit when you can.

FOUND MONEY Market Indicator
The History of the Index: The name McWhorter is Scotch-Irish. The Irish side likes to have fun, but the Scotch side cannot walk past a coin on the street, even if it is a penny at a busy intersection. If you see him walking with his head down, he is not depressed nor had too much Scotch. He is looking for money. When Travis returned to Texas a few years ago, after an absence of 7 years living in Indianapolis, he found a dollar on the streets of Austin his very first day back. His wife, Jo Ann, had the idea of keeping the money in a jar marked "found money" since moving to Austin to see how much was found in a year. In tracking the money Travis has discovered that there is a correlation between money found in a calendar quarter and the economy. The more money found the better the market and economy the following quarter. He has developed an indicator, which we will report in this column quarterly. In 2008 he added the annual predictor, which we report in December each year. The 11th year ended in June and is added below.

TRAVIS' FOUND MONEY INDEX (INCEPTION JUNE 9, 1998, Austin, Texas)




1st Year$6.49STOCK MARKET NEUTRAL
(Based on secret findings)
2nd Year$8.68
3rd Year$7.65
4th Year$9.81
5th Year$7.54
6th Year$6.24
7th Year$6.43
8th Year$12.73
9th Year$4.59
10th Year$11.90
11th Year$8.75
Actual annual findings each year are listed above and have been audited by the use of a full finger and toe verification system. The annual predictor, once modified, has just completed its second year. The first year correctly predicted the really bad 2008 fall but I missed it. This second year of 2009 has just completed and the market grew greater than 10%, about 20%, so the annual prediction of greater than 10% was right on.

The Index is predicting greater than 10% again for 2010.

The Proven Accuracy of the Index in Quarterly Predictions is Confirmed Below.

DIRECTION OF STOCK MARKET BY QUARTER: 24 RIGHT 14 WRONG - THE INDEX is CORRECT OVER 66% OF THE TIME AND HAS PREDICTED UP TO 5 STRAIGHT QUARTERS CORRECTLY. It did miss it last quarter though.

Forecast: Travis' Found Money Index points up for the 3rd Quarter 2010.

The Found Money findings of $2.91 this quarter points to the Third Quarter being up greater than 5%.

Predicting Quarter
(Quarter Proceeding)
Amount Found
During 3 months
Forecast Period
(Overall Stock U.S.)
Prediction
(Direction)
Actual
4th Quarter, 2007$3.381st Quarter, 2008Up >5%Down >5%
1st Quarter, 2008.912nd Quarter, 2008Down >5%Down <5%
2nd Quarter, 2008$ 1.083rd Quarter, 2008Down <5%Down >5%
3rd Quarter, 2008$1.694th Quarter, 2008Up >5%Down >5%
4th Quarter, 2008$3.641st Quarter, 2009Up >5%Down >5%
1st Quarter, 2009$1.402nd Quarter, 2009Up <5%Up >5%
2nd Quarter, 2009$1.793rd Quarter, 2009Up >5%Up >5%
3rd Quarter, 2009$4.114th Quarter, 2009Up >5%Up >5%
4th Quarter, 2009$.701st Quarter, 2010Down >5%Up <5%
1st Quarter, 2010$1.962nd Quarter, 2010Up >5%Down >5%
2nd Quarter, 2010$2.913rd Quarter, 2010Up >5%Check in Oct

(See the Entire Quarterly History of the Findings and Forecasts)

Predicting YearAmount FoundForecast PeriodPredictionActual
9th Year Finding$4.59Year 2008Down >30%Down >35
10th Year Finding$11.90Year 2009Up >10%Up >10%
11th Year Finding$8.75Year 2010Up >10%Check next Jan. 1

(The actual results are based on a straight average of the % changes of the NASDAQ and Dow). A secret formula has discovered how to call a quarter in advance. Another secret based on the theoretical number of ingredients in the original Dr. Pepper and Coke formulas plus a magic number and the historical year’s finding modified determines the annual forecast.

2010 Second Quarter Findings Point Up For the Third Quarter.

Wow! Two misses in a row. The second quarter could not overcome so many negative talkers and an out of control government. Oil does not always stop the squeaking. The market pulled back over 10%. All indicators seem to point up this quarter and the money found $2.91 was the most in three quarters. Get on board, Ford, life and your business.

Thanks for being in my corner. Check back in October when we next update the quarter.

 




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